Arthur Rubloff Endowed Professor of Public Policy Ralph Martire Discusses Trump's Tax Bill for the Chicago Sun-Times
The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” President Donald Trump and Congress just foisted on America will be “to the great detriment of the people of this country.” Those aren’t my words, nor are they Democratic Party hyperbole. They’re the sentiments of Marc Racicot, the former Republican governor of the very red state of Montana. Racicot voiced this criticism just before the legislation passed, in a vain effort to sway members of his party to kill the bill.
Unfortunately, Racicot’s caution fell on deaf ears, because most congressional Republicans fear the political consequences of incurring Trump’s wrath more than they care about the people they’re supposed to serve. So they passed the bill into law. This legislation is so iniquitous that by all objective measures, it will create significant, long-term harm for millions of low- and middle-income Americans — as well as seniors — just to line the pockets of the wealthiest.
Here’s why:
Making the temporary tax cuts enacted back in 2017 under Trump permanent is the centerpiece of the bill. But that comes at the cost of losing $3.8 trillion in revenue over the next decade. Other tax cuts in the legislation cost another $441 billion, bringing the total 10-year price tag for the tax cuts up to $4.2 trillion. And unless you’re one of Trump’s megarich cronies, those cuts aren’t benefiting you.
According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, by 2029 the bill actually increases taxes on workers making $30,000 a year or less, while bestowing an annual tax cut of $309,000 on the richest 0.1%. For perspective, that tax cut is nearly four times greater than the $80,610 median annual income in America.
And no, these supply side tax cuts for rich folks won’t stimulate the economy. In fact, after analyzing every supply side tax cut implemented in all 18 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development nations (including the U.S.) from 1965-2015, the London School of Economics found that tax cuts for the rich don’t enhance “real GDP growth or unemployment rates.”
They will, however, worsen income inequality. After adjusting for inflation, IRS data shows the average incomes of the top 1% jumped by 125% between 1979 and 2020, from $818,660 to $1.84 million per year. Over that same time frame, the average annual income for the bottom 99% — i.e. everyone else — went from $65,577 to $73,286, for an increase of just 12%. In that environment, transferring wealth from folks at the bottom and middle of the income ladder to the top is immoral.
Worse, to pay in part for ginormous tax cuts targeted to the Mar-a-Lago crowd, the bill slashes spending on programs that help less fortunate Americans do crazy stuff, like receive medical care and put food on the table. For instance, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which helps poor families buy nutritious food, gets cut by $186 billion over 10 years.
Then there’s Medicaid, the nation’s largest insurer, which provides health care coverage to some 71.3 million people, or roughly 20% of all Americans. Over the next decade, the budget office estimates Medicaid gets cut by some $1 trillion under the bill. This will cause anywhere from 10.3 million to 17 million folks to lose health coverage, the vast majority of whom work.
And despite Trump’s protestations to the contrary, Medicare, the federal health insurance program that primarily covers people 65 and older, will also get whacked because of the bill. See, under a process dubbed “sequestration,” the federal pay-as-you-go statute requires any growth in the deficit caused by newly enacted legislation like Trump’s bill, be automatically offset by spending cuts. While some programs are exempt from sequestration, Medicare isn’t. The budget office projects sequestration will cause $536 billion in Medicare cuts over the next decade, which means Trump was either ignorant of the law or lying.
Then there’s the harm the bill will wreak on the state government budgets, like Illinois’ General Fund. Over 94% of all General Fund spending on services goes to education, health care, human services and public safety. Unfortunately, the General Fund has a structural deficit, which means annual revenue growth is inadequate to continue funding the same level of those core services from year to year, even when the economy is growing.
Because Illinois’ income tax is based on federal law, when the feds cut taxes, so does Illinois. As the bill’s tax cuts filter down to Illinois, they’ll worsen the structural deficit by $923 million over the next 10 years. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Combined with the Medicaid and SNAP cuts, the bill’s potential impact on the General Fund is a 10-year financial hit that exceeds $50 billion. Which means Illinois either has to raise taxes or slash spending on core services like K-12 education, because Trump decided to feather the nests of his bajillionaire cronies.
Ralph Martire is executive director of the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, a nonpartisan fiscal policy think tank, and the Arthur Rubloff professor of public policy at Roosevelt University.
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